The Exxon Mobil oil spill in Montana’s Yellowstone River is minor in comparison to the BP Macondo spill as far as environmental disasters go but there are still some lessons for investors that apply regardless of the number of barrels of oil spilled.
In fact, the number of barrels of oil spilled is a good place for investors to begin in terms of assessing the risk for Exxon Mobil.
Exxon Mobil estimates that the total amount of oil released is between 750 barrels and 1,000 barrels.
In the early days of the BP oil spill, former BP CEO Tony Hayward estimated that 5,000 barrels of oil a day was being spilled, and uttered the line, “a guesstimate is a guesstimate, and 5,000 barrels is still the best guess.” The subsequent estimate for the flow rate from the BP spill was 3.2 million barrels, or roughly 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day.
The lesson here is that investors should at least take heed that the earliest estimates of oil spills can be underestimated. Indeed, by Tuesday afternoon, Exxon Mobil said its original estimate of the oil spill may have underestimated its size, and the extent of its geographic spread, too.
In addition to its 750 to 1,000 barrel spill estimate, an Exxon Mobil spokesman originally said that the spill had been fairly well contained and that there is “very little soiling” of stream banks beyond 10-miles. On Tuesday afternoon, ExxonMobil conceded that the spill could have extended by the original 10-mile area.
The ruptured pipeline is submerged at the bottom of free-flowing river. Flooding of the Yellowstone river continues to be a fear for spreading the spilled oil over a greater range, as well as the high water level being cited as a potential cause of the pipeline rupture.
If the Exxon Mobil estimate does stand, this spill woulod be 3,000 times smaller than the BP spill.
Maybe of equal or greater relevance is headline/political risk. As Raymond James noted on Tuesday, “From a PR standpoint, the Silvertip spill comes against the backdrop of elevated scrutiny of the industry’s environmental track record…Memories of Exxon’s Valdez disaster in Alaska (1989) may also come to the surface. While the cause of Exxon’s spill has not yet been established, we would not be surprised to see some heated political rhetoric, particularly from Montana’s state and local officials. The bottom line is that Exxon investors should brace themselves for a few days (perhaps weeks) of adverse headlines.”
Exxon Mobil has existing public relations issues in Montana. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council, the larger Yellowstone Pipeline (of which Silvertip is a component, and co-operated by ConocoPhillips) has leaked hundreds of thousands of gallons of petroleum into the state’s rivers and lands over a 55-year history (the Silvertip pipeline is 22 years old). In particular, the NRDC estimates that, by the mid-1990s, the pipeline had spilled at least 71 times on the 1.2 million acre Flathead Indian Reservation. In one high-profile case, after a163,000 gallons leak into a reservation creek, the Confederated Salish and Kootenai tribes opted to not renew a lease to run the pipeline through tribal land.
After the spill on Saturday, press reports noted that the U.S. Department of Transportation notified Exxon Mobil in July 2010 of seven potential safety violations and other problems with Silvertip. Exxon Mobil said the notifications were unrelated to the spill events and effectively dealt with by the company.

After working with Taoiseach
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